Jeff Hirsh Read: April 2020
Inspiration: FiveThirtyEight (Nate Silver’s blog) is often cited by forecasters—why is it so frequently referenced?
Summary
Written with the help of ChatGPT, below is a brief summary to understand what is covered in the book.
“The Signal and the Noise”, published in 2012 by author, statistician, and poker player Nate Silver, explores the concept of prediction and the role of data in decision-making. The book discusses the importance of accurate forecasting and the various fields in which prediction is critical, such as finance, politics, and sports. Silver then goes on to identify common pitfalls that can lead to failed predictions, including the over-reliance on certain types of data, the use of poor models or statistical techniques, and the influence of cognitive biases.
Throughout the book, Silver provides numerous examples and case studies to illustrate his points, including the 2008 financial crisis, the failure of many expert political forecasts in the run-up to the Iraq War, and the success of sabermetrics (the statistical analysis of baseball data) in predicting player performance. He also discusses the role of big data and machine learning in the field of prediction, and he offers practical advice for individuals and organizations seeking to make more accurate forecasts.
Unedited Notes
Direct from my original book log, below are my unedited notes (abbreviations and misspellings included) to show how I take notes as I read.
***Disclaimer: notes taken before realizing I needed better notes
Experts not as good at predicting as would think, often guessing especially as go far out like with climate change (overall exists, but extent is tough to predict 50/100 years down the line) Different variables in play than expect, past explanations not always apply, always uncertain Talking heads who hold extreme views get a lot wrong but air time because extreme
