Jeff Hirsh Read: April 2020
Inspiration: “Black Swans” are often mentioned by pundits in the media—what are they and where did this idea come from?
Summary
Written with the help of ChatGPT, below is a brief summary to understand what is covered in the book.
“The Black Swan”. published in 2007 by author, statistician, and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb, discusses the role of rare and unexpected events (which Taleb refers to as “black swans”) in history, science, and finance. According to Taleb, black swan events are highly improbable and often have a significant impact on the course of human affairs. They are often unforeseen and difficult to predict, and yet they can have a profound and lasting impact on society.
Taleb explores the psychological and philosophical underpinnings of our inability to predict and prepare for black swan events, and he argues that our reliance on traditional models of risk and probability is flawed. He contends that our failure to properly understand and account for black swans has led to a series of disasters and crises in the modern world, including the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the collapse of the global financial system, and the ongoing threat of global pandemics. Throughout the book, Taleb provides numerous examples and case studies to illustrate his points, and he offers practical advice for individuals and organizations seeking to better anticipate and prepare for black swan events.
Unedited Notes
Direct from my original book log, below are my unedited notes (abbreviations and misspellings included) to show how I take notes as I read.
***Disclaimer: notes taken before realizing I needed better notes
Black swan = outsized impact, low probability, explained in hindsight If can articulate it, not a black swan – black swans different to everyone, something don’t know Econometrics, stats w/ bell curve fradulent bc tail events that are low frequency have huge impact which bell curve doesn’t get at (not describe reality)
